Countries are listed in order of production volume.
Statistics come from both the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Assn. (metalcutting machine tools) and the separate Japan Forming Machinery Assn. (metalforming machine tools). Both sectors of the country's machine-tool industry experienced good growth in 1997. But, like many other countries in this survey, gains measured in local currency were diminished after translation into US dollars.
Still, Japan remains untouchable in leading the world in machine-tool production. Its $9.7-billion in total output is 48% higher than second-place Germany. It has held the ichi-ban position every year since 1982.
Metalcutting machine-tool demand has remained robust, according to Takaaki Masuyama, executive director of JMTBA. In addition to growth seen overseas, domestic demand has made healthy gains as investment among automobile-related industries continues to recover. As a result, 1997 production exceeded the 1-trillion-yen mark for the first time in six years. Machine-tool export for the year also exceeded the 1996 peak, with steady gains made in exports to the U.S., Europe, and other Asian countries. A recovery of domestic demand is pushing imports near their 1990 peak. Judging from order levels in the pipeline, 1998 production, export, and import are all expected to hover around their 1997 levels.
In past years, Japan has been faulted by other major producers for its closed markets. Critics pointed to a low ratio of imports to consumption, saying the statistic demonstrated how Japanese buyers buy Japanese machines only. For 1996, Japan improved the ratio to nearly 25%. For the year just ended, however, imports accounted for only 18.5% of Japanese consumption. That's by far the lowest among the world's top-ten producers, whose imports account for between 44% and 69% of consumption.
JIMToF, the biennial Japan International Machine Tool Fair, runs in Osaka this time, Oct. 28-Nov.4.
Second-largest producer Germany had output stay level in 1997 compared to 1996. But when the Deutsche mark values were converted to dollars, each at average market exchange rates, the 1997 output figure fell 13%. Similarly, Germany's output as a percentage of world production went from 19.5% in 1996 to 17.7% in 1997.
Developments by forming-machine producers brought that sector's share of total output up somewhat, from 30% of production to 32%.
A moderate 2% decrease in exports in 1997 (again, a larger decrease when measured in dollars) is explained by a lag in reaping benefits of an export drive aimed at all of Germany's mechanical-engineering sector. Also, big orders by large German automakers for their offshore factories are registered as domestic shipments when the machines' first destinations are to home factories for outfitting.
At VDW, the machine-tool trade association in Frankfurt, chief economist Gerhard Hein expresses optimism for business with the United States. Production volumes are forecast to rise by about 6% in both 1998 and 1999.
Germany's national machine-tool exhibition, Metav'98, runs in Düsseldorf June 16-20. Another major trade show, AMB, is privately sponsored and runs in Stuttgart Sept. 15-19. Euro-Blech, the specialty forming-machinery show, runs in Hanover Oct. 20-24.
Stagnation marked 1997 for Italian builders, especially in domestic markets. Production grew by 4.5%, which translated to a decline of 5.2% when converted to US dollars. Imports measured in lire showed a 0.2% decline. UCIMU Sistemi per Produrre, the trade association in Milan, recently completed studies into the average age of installed machines in the country. Based on the results, it proposes the government set up incentives to modernize—primarily through an accounting procedure that would allow new machines to be amortized the year they are purchased, provided it could be shown they are replacing 20-year-old machines. The industry group projects that 1998 production will reach 6,565-billion lire, which would represent an 8.1% increase. Of that, 3,855-billion lire in exports are projected, a 6.6% gain over 1997. Consumption and imports are also projected to increase this year.
Italy's biennial national machine-tool exhibition, Bi-MU, runs Oct. 1-6 in Milan.
Figures are reported in Swiss francs by VSM, the trade group in Zurich. As in several other countries, a small gain measured in local currency was translated into a year-to-year decline when converted to dollars. That is reflected in a drop of one-half a percentage point in share of worldwide production. Swiss imports showed a decline in real terms.
The slight drop (2% in local New Taiwan dollars) in production during 1997 is attributed to a fall-off in sales to the industry's biggest market, China. With the economies of Southeast Asia (collectively Taiwan's third-biggest market after the US) in turmoil, exports are striving to develop new markets. India is considered a prime prospect, and the Taiwan Assn. of Machinery Industry (TAMI) has organized a pavilion of this year's IMTEX in New Delhi. Other prospective markets include Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil.
A 39% decline in imports last year is one sign that the bloom may be off the rose for builders selling into what has been a voracious market. China consumed 7.9% of the world's production in 1997, compared to 10.4% and 10.5% for 1996 and 1995. The figures are reported in US dollars by the China Machine Tool Builders' Assn. in Beijing.
The good performance of the UK economy, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of Europe, and the use of Sterling as a safe haven for offshore investors has led to a strong pound, which in turn affected sales of industrial equipment. According to the Machine Tool Technologies Assn. in London, production of cutting and forming machines fell 2% in 1997 from a strong 1996, and output is further forecast to decline in 1998, with the drop getting steeper as the year progresses. MTTA is also looking at preliminary forecasts for a cyclical downturn continuing in 1999, but says there are good reasons to be optimistic that this will be a relatively short downturn, with growth picking up during 2000.
Britain's national machine-tool show, MACH'98, runs Apr. 27-May 1 in Birmingham.
Statistics from SYMAP, the syndicate of machinery producers in Paris, show 3% to 4% increases in both cutting machine tools and forming machines. Exports stayed level compared to 1996, and imports grew 7%. Change in valuation of the French franc compared to the strong US dollar once again shows up as a drop in output after conversion to a common currency.
Production fell 13% when valued in won, the local currency, compared to 1996. And when converted into US dollars, 1997 production plummeted more than 27%, bringing the Republic of Korea to tenth place among producers, from ninth the year before. The pan-Asian monetary crisis was mostly to blame, with domestic spending on automobile production shrinking during the year.
The Korea Machine Tool Manufacturers' Assn. in Seoul points to a Daewoo Economic Research Institute study that sees a small rebound in 1998 that will be driven by exports. Domestic demand will not pick up meaningfully, since the majority of Korean machine-tool purchasers are small and medium-size companies that don't spend on capital equipment until well after clear signs of economic recovery. Moreover, in the aftermath of major business failures, banks are conservative to a fault in lending practices.
SIMTOS'98, the national machine-tool show, runs in Seoul Apr. 22-27.
A 2% boost in production was even higher when measured in pesetas, surpassing the record year of 1990. Exports gained by 15%, also hitting the highest level ever and accounting for 62% of production. Spain's best markets are Germany, the US, the UK, and France. Exports to the US gained 35%. Alberto Ortueta of AFM, the machine-tool manufacturers' association in San Sebastián, points out with pride that 74% of the value of production is in CNC machines.
Spain's biennial machine-tool show, BIEMH'98, opens Mar. 9 in Bilbao.
Data, from the Ottawa government bureau, includes parts, whereas information from most other countries excludes the value of parts and accessories. On a year-to-year basis, Canada increased its production 15% in 1997, measured in Canadian dollars.
Production (in Czech crowns, before conversion to dollars) increased 18%, continuing the trend that started in 1994 when domestic demand started an upswing. SST, the Assn. of Manufacturers & Suppliers of Engineering Technique in Prague, forecasts further increases in both production and export in 1998, the result of export orders obtained during EMO'97 in Hanover.
Statistics, from the Indian Machine Tool Manufacturers' Assn. in New Delhi, show a 10% rise in output measured in rupees, diminished only slightly when converted to US dollars. Exports and imports both gained. IMTEX 98, the national machine-tool exhibition, runs Feb. 24-Mar. 3 in New Delhi.
Production increased 2% in schillings. Imports declined 20% in 1997 from a 1996 level that had been unusually high. Still, imports were 88% of consumption. Figures are reported by FMS, the trade association in Austria.
Trade statistics from government sources, through the Wordservice International press service, are reported in US dollars. Domestic production statistics are unrevised from 1996 but converted at current conversion rates as the practice in this study. The industry is slowly recovering from the cataclysmic loss of the Soviet Union as a major market.
Production measured in roubles stayed about even with 1996 but fell 11% when translated into dollars. Russia's machine tool industry, along with the rest of its economy, has been on a long slide: Last year's $167-million in output is less than 30% of what it had been five years prior, for example. But recent official statements hint it may have just bottomed out. Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in January took note that 1997 industrial production advanced 1.9%--the first such growth since the 1980s. And Economics Minister Yakov Urinson lists the machine-tool industry among a growing handful showing a "tendency of improvement."
The changing value of the Finnish markka turned a 8% gain in production when measured in local currency into a small decline when counted in US dollars. Ilkka Niemelä of the Finnish federation of metal, engineering, and electrotechnical industries in Helsinki says that production is expected to increase 8.5% in 1998, with most of the increase coming in foreign markets. A fairly flat local economy is one reason imports are not expected to grow.
Domestic production increased 5% in guilders but showed a decline when converted to dollars. Exports show a 10% increase while imports had a 16% decline (in guilders), according to Dr. Clemens Nota of the trade association in Zoetermeer. Dutch imports regularly exceed consumption, as much of the mercantile nation's incoming goods are re-exported.
Masino-Savez, the machine-tool association in Belgrade, reports production and trade statistics in US dollars. General secretary Borivoje Ivkovic says that difficulties in obtaining financing cast a shadow over production, which declined slightly. Main customers—automotive, military—in the domestic market are still in deep recession with recovery unpredictable. Exports account for 80% of production. Despite exclusion from tariff preferences in the US and Western European countries, the Yugoslav Republic expects exports to Italy and Germany to grow. Exports to China should grow significantly.
Consumption skyrocketed in 1997, as privatisation encouraged many joint ventures with foreign companies and resulted in an influx of investment capital. The appetite was fed by a four-fold increase in imports. But inflation and high interest rates put a cap on increasing production in the metalworking factories that use the new imported machine tools. And while other industries are privatising, the machine-tool industry hasn't experienced a similar influx of investment, and domestic production actually declined. UPROMUS, the union of Romanian machine-tool producers in Bucharest, estimates that total production fell in 1997 to $57-million (US$) from $68.1-million. Cutting and forming machines declined equally. The association's executive director Mircea Pupaza reports that the metalworking economy is still very much in a transition.
Statistics are reported in US dollars by ALSTRO, the machine-tool trade association in Zagreb. The industry exports more than 75% of its production. The biggest buyers in the last several years have been the Germans and other Europeans, with the Russian market starting a strong showing late last year. Trade association director Zvonimir Speljak observes that the war is "becoming more and more the past for us, and our old buyers have started regaining their confidence." But while the export market is seen as improving, the same cannot be said for domestic customers.
Statistics from CIMAF, the industry trade association in Porto, report an 11.6% increase in production. Exports and imports also grew.
Trade statistics reported by Wordservice International are derived from AMDIMA, the Mexican association of machine-tool distributors, and BANCOMEXT, the Mexican foreign trade bank. Import figures do not include machines destined for the Maquiladora plants that sit just outside the US border. Sources say that the high-tech industries are leading the gains made in the recent recovery.
A decline in production and exports, and an 11% gain in imports, are reported in US dollars by AFMH, the machine-tool trade association in Buenos Aires.
The Argentine national machine-tool show, EMAQH'98, runs Apr. 18-25.
Most consumption is imported. A rough estimate from Dennis Rutter, chairman of South Africa's Machine Tool Merchants' Assn., attributes most (85%) of the $5.3-million of domestic production to two privately owned metalforming-machine companies.